New York State is facing a historic “Super El Niño” for the upcoming 2026–2027 winter season, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing the odds of a very strong event lasting through winter at over 90%.
This rare atmospheric pattern is shaping-up to be one of the most intense on record and indicates that winter in New York will likely feature milder overall temperatures, reduced total seasonal snowfall, and an elevated risk for large coastal storms.
Models are projecting the Pacific Ocean warm water anomaly (the amount above normal) to be more than +3° Celsius (C), considerably exceeding the previous record of +2.6°C in 2015–2016, and the 1997–1998 record of +2.4°C.
This summer has seen a weak tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic and Caribbean, which is typical of El Nino years. A quieter late-summer hurricane season continues to be expected for the East Coast.
Because regional temperatures will trend warmer, standard winter storm tracks that normally bring powdery snow are more likely to deliver cold rain, sleet, or freezing rain, keeping seasonal accumulation down, trail conditions icy, and lake ice less stable for snowmobilers and hard water anglers.
This heat will dramatically increase the possibility of rain and melt periods between snow events, especially through December, with January and February offering an opportunity for some snow.
Winter sports enthusiasts can hope for at least some snow in late February, and possibly into March, forecasters say.
While cold days will still happen, New Yorkers should expect fewer prolonged Arctic cold snaps and shorter periods of deep sub-zero freezes.
Historically, Super El Nino winters trigger massive, isolated East Coast blizzards as milder ocean temperatures bring excessive moisture that can collide with brief bursts of cold air.
For instance, during the historic 2015–2016 El Nino winter, a single January blizzard dropped a record-breaking 27.5 inches of snow on Central Park.
Combined with high tides, coastal regions like Long Island and New York City face a heightened risk of beach erosion and tidal flooding.
Atmospheric variables like the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can still shift rapidly and temporarily override El Nino effects, but a warmer winter will be the rule overall this season.
While El Nino is a natural climate cycle, it is now operating inside an atmosphere that is significantly warmer and holds more moisture than it did a few decades ago due to Climate Change. These changes have increased the potential for dramatic weather events.
A new UN Environment Programme report warned this week that the world is set to cross the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold within the next few years.
Read more about Winter Sports in New York
Photo of Whiteface Mountain in November, 2020 (courtesy ORDA).
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